Butterfly Effect Voting

2021-01-31   |   by CusiGO

In the Catalan election, the vote of uleida may affect many things in San Geronimo, Madrid, the seat of Parliament. The outcome of the Catalonia 14-F election will have an impact not only at the autonomous regional level, but also at the national level. Voting will not only lead the struggle for political hegemony and independence, but also determine the government’s road map, in which the role of the Central Election Commission is the key to maintaining the authorized majority. Polls show that the performance of the people’s party, the outbreak of citizens and vox will also have an impact on the formation of the center right space. Here are some of the key elements of the Catalan voting butterfly effect.

Political hegemony. Since 2017, Catalonia and esquilla have been working tirelessly for the political hegemony of Catalonia. The traditional social people political alternation (occupied by socialists in big city areas, and the space for integration in rural areas has disappeared) has created a new problem competitor. Esquila has become more and more important in elections, even winning votes in the last municipal election. That’s not the number of mayors, because junts managed to take over more from very small towns. The Republicans also succeeded in defeating the socialists among Catalan generals.

ERC has lost two crown jewels: the Barcelona municipal government on the one hand and the Barcelona parliamentary government on the other. In the first case, ADA colau succeeded in extending her mandate due to the agreement with PSC and support for the inauguration of Manuel Valls, although this was the most voted training. At the second meeting, junts and PSC reached an agreement, which still deepened the differences between the two independent organizations. “If ERC doesn’t win, they will,” Oriol junkers said on Saturday

The road map of separatism. In these elections, the direction of independence in the next few years is also at stake. After the 1-O referendum (declared illegal by the judiciary), the strong response of the state and the trial of the trial leaders, junts and ERC embody two opposite modes. Carles puigdemont’s people advocate confrontation with the state: “we are looking for cracks to make the state weaker.”, In an interview with this newspaper last October, candidate Elsa artadi explained that ERC believed that separatism needed to win more supporters in order to force the country to negotiate an agreed referendum.

Laura Borr á s, the presidential candidate for judges, said on Saturday that she would reactivate puygde Monte’s unilateral declaration of independence, which was frozen in 2017, if it succeeds in exceeding the 50% voting threshold. ERC insists on negotiation and only when the state refuses for a long time and gets high electoral and institutional support can it open the door to unilateral action.

Effective government. Republicans argue that even if the government has to go the same way, the fact that it’s president of the government will change the direction of the executive branch. ERC denies it will reach an agreement with PSC and insists its bet is a comprehensive government, including cup, pdecat and the house of Commons. However, the latter vetoed the junts, and the new integrationists did not want to share the Executive Council with the anti capitalist. In short, the confusion of cross vetoes has left the future of the government in doubt.

Salvador illa, the socialist candidate, has promised to attend the inauguration if he wins, though it is not clear what support he will receive. Vox gave him his own votes, and independents ask IRA every day to clarify whether he will accept them. Catalonia’s governance is hampered by fierce competition between junts and ERC, in which even epidemics do not allow a truce. A year ago, former president quim torra decided to repeal the legislature, further prolonging the suffering of an interim government.

The future of the centre right. If any of the three brands has a decisive outcome: citizen, PP and Vox, Catalans can decide to fight the middle and right across the country. Most importantly, if ines alimadas’ party fails in the election. If the February 14 election is the funeral of CS, which is likely to lose a third of its support, from 36 members to 12 to 13, according to a recent opinion poll by the chief executive of CIS Catalan, then this milestone could be the beginning of a merger or alliance with the people’s Democratic Party (PP), Because the free brand did not complete the flight in Madrid. Popular polls show that unemployment has fallen even more than the marginalized. On the contrary, if CS insists on and saves furniture, the integration process with PP may slow down. At CS, on the other hand, they claim that their internal polls predict that Catalonia’s people’s party will lose the vote, which is another specter that runs through these elections, even though the chief executive expects more popular people than Abbas Carr. In Catalonia, a hypothetical far right overtaking to marriage weakens his leadership.

The stability of moncroya. The executive alliance may withdraw from the more stable or tense 14-f. The outcome of ERC, the main ally of the Pedro s á nchez administration, is crucial, because if Republicans find that the strategy of reaching an agreement with the socialists punished them in the vote, their cooperation could deteriorate. The PSC’s strong bet on Salvador illa as a candidate is also hovering among ERC voters, endangering strategic alliances, or at least tensions.

If the independence party forms a new government led by junts, the government’s road map may also be another problem for Sanchez. On the other hand, the results of the Catalan brand en com ú podem are also important. Withdrawing from Jessica arbiac would weaken Paul Iglesias’ position in the Council of ministers.

The future of Catalonia postcovid

The political symbol of the new administration will also mark the road to social and economic reconstruction after the pandemic. First, some European funds and synergies with the private sector will be in front of you. Junts claims to be a center left organization, but some of the assumptions his candidate has shown deviate from the label, such as the possibility of abolishing estate tax. As far as ERC is concerned, it maintains that this is the only guarantee that the answer will be “the interest of Ibex 35”.