Cold Water Tank For Quick Economic Recovery

2021-01-31   |   by CusiGO

“Hard months have passed, but you can see the light at the end of the tunnel.” What minister Reyes maroto said in front of a group of tourism professionals last Wednesday sounded promising. They were released on the same day as a department’s media statistics: by 2020, half a million hotel workers will be unemployed or included in the ETS. Plus a grain of grain, it will leave a virus to the disaster in the mountain area. More debt, more deficits, more unemployment and a historic collapse of GDP. By 2021, you’ll see that.

Deloitte adds new data to the country’s business barometer every semester. Some people think that the minister may be right and it may be closer to get out of trouble. The survey, conducted in more than 200 companies with more than 500000 employees, shows that by the second half of 2020, their performance will be better than expected. In the marathon, 53% increased sales at the end of the year, 45% increased profitability, and 28% joined the workforce after bankruptcy and confinement in March.

Their forecast for 2021 is not as pessimistic as the last barometer, although it is worth noting that the survey was conducted in December (when the infection rate was far below the current level) and before the heavy snowfall in Philomena in early January. Maybe that’s why the economic outlook for the entire fiscal year is green: 61% think Spain’s production machinery will improve and 15% think it won’t change. The remaining 24% remained in the black melt. It is expected that 53% of enterprises will fully return to the pre pandemic level between May and December and 45% from next year. These forecasts are almost the same as the team members’ expectations of their active sectors. When it was their own companies that were analyzed, the data even improved: as many as 66% believed that their organizations would grow (slightly or substantially) this year, and only 17% believed that the situation would worsen.

But, as the minister said, there are still complex quarters, a clear sign that the very short-term economic outlook will only improve slightly between now and the summer, with four out of 10% of the respondents believing that the situation will worsen to varying degrees, or remain just as bad. “The key is whether our country has the ability to make the vaccination program effective,” concludes Zamora Francisco Lozano, chief financial officer of the fund and a member of the participating group. “The third wave hit us hard. Yesterday (as of last Monday) data showed that more than 90000 people were infected over the weekend, and the health status of families was seriously saturated. By vaccinating, we are making use of the capacity of the service sector to recover. ” A warning, hoping to travel across the country, or rather across the continent, to see the dose supply of the war between the European Commission and AstraZeneca.

Gonzalo Gomez bengoechea, a professor of economics at ICADE, discussed the issue with students this week. “We never thought that the number of hospital beds was an early indicator of activity.” He’s not kidding. He’s sorry. You know, in this case, the economists have run out of answers, because this question is still 100% related to the healthy development of an economy that has been burdened with the heavy burden of the previous crisis (no fiscal cushion, very high unemployment rate, The social elevator (broken) reappeared at the edge of the cliff at an uncertain moment.

This week, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for Spain: it expects Spain’s gross domestic product this year to fall 5.9% instead of 7.2% as barajaba has so far forecast. This is the second largest rate cut among the major economies in the eurozone. The other is Italy, in permanent political instability. “Assuming that vaccination is universal, by the end of summer, the indicators may recover in a normal process, which will translate into consumption, investment and new projects. To be sure, the International Monetary Fund has cooled the economic recovery a little, but it has also seen a 12.8% decline, which is still 11%, “said matiza g ó mez bengoechea.

Employment is a place full of fog. According to the latest EPA data, eters has helped prevent the 3.7 million people from soaring unemployment this year, which is 16.5%. Many big companies, such as those that are representative on the barometer, have had to hire reinforcements (28%), and the same proportion of 26% has been adjusted. Most of the changes were caused by pandemics (77% of companies had staffing changes), while 57% had significant changes in their product or service supply, and 41% were eligible for RTE. Traditionally, factors such as legislative reform, access to external markets or mergers that have led to upward or downward adjustments in staffing are now seen as residual. A good statistic is that throughout the year, more companies consider creating stable jobs (27%) than those who think they will fire workers (17%). On the contrary, for temporary workers, more people admit that they will cut the expenses of this chapter than those who will sign up.

To be sure, the chances of getting out of this huge crisis will be even more unequal. From the micro data of the barometer, we can see that insurance, media, telecommunications, construction and logistics companies think they are lucky. They think their grades will continue to improve this semester. People in hotels, tourism and banking all put their thumbs on the ground. Obviously, the hotel industry: physical restrictions will crush the conference, travel, conference and financial industries, because when the public stimulus no longer has an impact on the economy, there may be a large number of overdue payments, which will turn from a health crisis to a financial crisis. “At present, non-performing loans are under anesthesia in the production sector. You may notice some consumption, but we don’t even see it in housing. The savings rate is the highest in history, “said fuenda Lozano.

According to funcas, 36% of Spaniards have seen their families’ financial situation deteriorate, especially among young people. Now, most citizens of all ages are more concerned about when the virus will end than when they will be fired, but social unrest is usually a fire that sweeps underground and only shows up at the last minute, as this week’s violence in the Netherlands shows. Citing a study by the bank for International Settlements, the economist argues that the crisis has exacerbated potential vulnerabilities that have disappeared during the boom and pose a greater threat to democratic institutions. There are also cracks in Spain that are about to break, just as in the case of freelancers.

Maria Jos é landaburu, Secretary General of the association of self employed people (uatae), argued in the offices of the Ministry of economy, the Ministry of social security and the Ministry of labor. Nevertheless, a group still has an advantage: the loser of the past few months, trade, The hotel industry and some related sub sectors, such as accommodation companies or taxi companies, were the first to notice the restoration of calm. “Because we all want to go out again. The problem is that they have been holding on for a long time, and despite the protective shields (RTE and lay offs), trade has been dragging down its crisis by changing habits. Either he uses this time to transform, or it’s hard to stop us from doing what we need to do. ”

The word, conversion, is overwhelming urgency. As Francisco Ortega, contenur’s chief financial officer, put it, “in some areas, this is a difficult and dramatic picture, and in this case, the executive manual model is not worth it.” In some cases, innovative enterprises will be the only way to survive. ” Teo Lozano, for example, is in charge of the marketing department of Steelcase, a multinational office furniture company. Last year, China’s manufacturing industry, which has not yet recovered from the great depression, plummeted by 30%. “The outlook will be better in 2021, but it will be more similar in the first half of the year before the vaccine becomes available,” he sighs But he’s already thinking about Plan B. In our business, we know that many companies will continue to choose telecommuting more or less. We are designing models for places where there are fewer workers so that they can cooperate face to face. In addition, private demand forces us to invest a lot of energy in e-commerce, looking for products more suitable for families, because not all work chairs are black. ”

Ferrer á n Garc í a, a director of caboel, a real estate company, says that in his case, international investors have a lot of money available and that “real estate may be another option.”. Testimony from other companies also showed that the glass was half full. Mar í a Mata, director of Sociedad sugarera Larios, a real estate group, believes that this time, unlike the crisis in 2008, her industry is a “better prepared” industry, and recalls that future success will leave those who share space between profitability and sustainable development process and corporate strategy extended. The barometer is right, even the apocalypse. In the survey, companies contributed the most to the development goals, with climate action rising from seventh to first, followed by gender equality, although the proportion of women in management positions was very high in these companies It is lower than intermediate position (37%) or grassroots position (43%) (24%). Interestingly, sustainable development goal 8 (SDO 8), which refers to “decent work and economic growth”, has dropped to fifth place.

If Spain learned anything from the last crisis, it was going out. The industry is on track, and perhaps that’s why people like Manuel Terroba, President of BMW Spain and Portugal, remain optimistic, “despite the complexities of 2020 and the worrying car starts this year.”. However, for all the companies surveyed, the conquered land is burning. In the second half of the year, the proportion of sales volume in turnover decreased; 49% of the people did not export anything, and only 25% of the people accounted for more than 30% of the turnover.

This year, half of the people still think that exporting doesn’t make any sense to their business. The most trusted markets are restricted European markets, and the worst are the UK, where 13% of companies want to stop after brexit. In many Latin American economies outside Europe, 47% of entrepreneurs believe the recession is certain, while the US and Asian markets, especially the latter, are expected to perform best.

On these fragile foundations, Spain’s economy is facing a more difficult year than it promised last December. Two lights at the end of the tunnel, vaccines and the European fund, are flashing. If that’s true, as Jens Spahn, Germany’s health minister, said on Thursday, the vaccine shortage will last for at least two months, then the recovery will certainly last into last summer.

As for European funding, they have received a lot of skepticism: only 17% of the panel members believe that they will help “substantially” improve the Spanish economy. The evidence is that 65 percent of people – we’re talking about large and medium-sized enterprises – think they won’t be able to benefit from the next generation program.