The Strong Light Rise Brought Cpi Back To Positive For The First Time In Ten Months.

2021-01-29   |   by CusiGO

Among other things, the sharp rise in electricity prices due to the temporary Philomena and the subsequent cold wave put CPI on track in January, an area it has never been involved in since February 2020. According to Friday’s forecast by the National Bureau of statistics, the price index rose 0.6% in January, one percentage point (- 0.5%) higher than in December. According to the Bureau of statistics, the rise in electricity prices is the main reason for the sudden rise in prices, which has also affected the rise in natural gas and food prices.

As people fear – as the government has acknowledged – by early 2021, the light bill will be a headache for many. The heavy snow in Filomena and the cold wave that followed, and the historical minimum temperature in some areas was lower than minus 20 degrees, which greatly increased the demand. Coupled with the shortage of renewable energy at that time, the power reached its peak at the beginning of this month, As a result, the user’s bill increased by about $10 million. CPI reflects this growth and the increase of energy projects, which have a good weight in the index.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (INE), CPI rose 0.6% in January (tentatively, this Friday’s figure is a breakthrough that will be confirmed or not confirmed in two weeks), up 1.1 percentage points from – 0.5% in December, the biggest absolute monthly increase since January 2017, when CPI rose 1.4 percentage points. In addition, this is the first time that the index has been on track since March 2020, when the epidemic alert status was just released, at 0%. Since then, the impact of the health crisis on liquidity has caused the prices of oil and its derivatives, as well as those related to transportation (air tickets, holiday packages, etc.) and tourism and leisure (bars, restaurants, entertainment, etc.). As a result, the index was negative in April and remained unchanged throughout the year.

In January, light had pulled the index out of the well, but that was not the only factor. According to the National Bureau of statistics, food in January also helped to increase this ratio, as it rose more than in the same month of 2020 (again, there is no detailed data on this or any of the projects), just like the tourism package, the price of natural gas in January 2020 fell more than this month, Compared with the decline 12 months ago, January saw an increase.

On the other hand, the estimated annual rate of change of potential inflation (excluding the total index of unprocessed food and energy products) rose from five tenths to 0.6%, which is in line with the general consumer price index.